Horizon scanning is crucial for mission-driven organisations like Nesta, helping to anticipate future challenges and identify opportunities to maximise impact. However, traditional horizon scanning methods can be time-consuming and resource-intensive.

At Nesta’s Discovery Hub, we’re developing a part-automated horizon scanning system. It will capture and make sense of emerging issues and trends that could significantly influence Nesta’s missions on an ongoing basis. By bringing automated data collection and analysis into our existing methods, we aim to create a more robust, efficient, and dynamic approach to horizon scanning. This builds on the data-driven horizon scanning approach developed through our previous Innovation Sweet Spots projects. Innovation is constantly evolving, so the Discovery Hub is shifting from one-off snapshots to an automated, continuously updating foresight process.

We will share our findings – in terms of both the method and the results – with others working towards similar mission goals.

We want to improve the impact of Nesta and others working in our mission areas by providing a robust, up-to-date analysis of emerging trends and technologies. This will help better anticipate future developments, inform strategic decisions, and implement more effective interventions, ultimately accelerating progress toward our mission goals. For example, we’ll support Nesta’s Mission Studio and Impact Investment teams with insights on the startup landscape, similar to our previous work on funding future generations.

We’ll support Nesta’s work by scanning for signals around emerging policy ideas and policy developments at different stages of the policy and legislative development timeline. We’ll also spot new research and development trends in Nesta’s missions areas, such as in Innovation Sweet Spots. These insights can also be used to develop policy recommendations, such as those in our Innovation Sweet Spots: food innovation, obesity and food environments report.

The pace of technological and societal change is accelerating, creating significant challenges for organisations working to address complex social issues like Nesta. In a rapidly changing world, the most effective ways to achieve our mission goals may also change. This means we need to become more efficient in how we monitor emerging trends and developments to identify new avenues for impact and ensure our efforts are focused on the most promising approaches. By doing this openly and collaboratively, we can also share these insights with others working towards similar goals.

We’re developing a part-automated, data-driven approach, allowing us to scan a wider range of evidence and produce more frequently updated analysis. This involves creating a data pipeline that automatically identifies and classifies new information from various data sources, whether venture capital funding, research grants, research publications or policy developments. We will look at the data over time to identify any trends, and also look at the system as a whole to build a dynamic picture of the overall innovation landscape. We’re also experimenting with large language models (LLMs) to help quickly synthesise the findings and provide decision-makers with digestible, actionable insights in a more timely fashion.  

We will share our work here as we go, so others can use, build upon, or give feedback on this project. 

If you'd like to know more about our work, read our technical blog on planning an automated horizon scanning process, or get in touch.