Will we have a shortage of plumbers in a decade?
www.nesta.org.uk/blog/will-we-have-a-shortage-of-plumbers-in-a-decade/
www.nesta.org.uk/blog/will-we-have-a-shortage-of-plumbers-in-a-decade/
The UK's plumbing and heating sector is facing a structural challenge: an aging workforce coupled with a low number of new entrants. In recent years, the number of people entering the profession as measured by apprenticeship completions (where we expect the majority of new entrants to come from) is only around 40–60% of the number retiring each year. If this continues, this will affect the availability of heating and plumbing professionals in the years to come. In a decade, we could be facing an acute skills shortage.
The sector's preferred route for skill acquisition is apprenticeships. But this is a sector currently dominated by sole traders and microbusinesses – according to BEIS figures around 95% of heating businesses have fewer than 10 employees. There is a lot of enthusiasm for apprenticeships amongst young people, but the cost and risk of taking on an apprentice are often too high for the typical microbusiness. This creates a dynamic where the industry vocally supports a model it is structurally unable to enable effectively deliver.
A strong plumbing and heating industry is key to home heating decarbonisation. Plumbing and heating professionals without heat pump experience can learn the relevant skills relatively easily, and our Start at Home scheme exists to support them in that journey. But a shortage of plumbing and heating engineers risks generating a bottleneck both across domestic plumbing and in the UK’s decarbonisation efforts.
If trends continue, in the years to come it is plausible that householders will see an increase in the price they need to pay for plumbing and heating services. It is also possible that quality may decline as those with the most expertise command higher fees.
Based on a combination of our existing industry knowledge and the typical way that markets operate, we think this will lead to the following changes in the sector.
Currently, there is a strong industry preference for the hands-on experience gained through an apprenticeship. However, there is a large number of young people who have college training in plumbing. Our research insights from a survey of heating engineers showed that heating professionals who do employ staff are reluctant to take on those who have only completed such classroom-based training. The other option, to set up as a sole trader, is also tough for this group.
However, the market will eventually force a solution. As the number of experienced plumbers declines and service prices increase, those with classroom training will become more valuable. Microbusinesses will be more willing to employ a junior colleague without full apprenticeship experience or to work with them on a freelance basis. It is also possible that innovative firms will emerge that help facilitate those with non-apprenticeship training to form their own businesses or to act as contractors.
Managed learning programmes (MLPs) are an effective, existing example of a mid-career entrance route to the plumbing and heating sector from those working in other domains. These are typically self-funded, intensive courses which take around six to nine months and include a vital industry placement component.
MLPs are attractive because they reach older participants, career changers in their 20s, 30s, and 40s and beyond, who are often more likely to have the existing soft skills, such as business and employability skills, either sought by employers or that would enable them to start their own companies. Furthermore, being self-funded, these routes attract highly motivated individuals and do not incur direct costs to the state. As the demand for plumbers increases, these accelerated, focused pathways will become increasingly vital to quickly inject experienced professionals into the workforce.
In parallel with workforce changes, technological and process innovations will emerge to make plumbing work less labour-intensive. We have already seen this in developments including rapid press fittings, which replaced time-consuming soldered pipe joints, and specialised equipment, such as heat pump trolleys, which enable a single person to move heavy units.
These innovations essentially act as a substitute for labour. By reducing the time and physical effort required for a job, they increase the productivity of the existing workforce and lessen the pressure to recruit new staff immediately.
While the structural limitations for sole traders and microbusinesses detailed above will remain in the years to come, increases in demand and the subsequent rise in service prices will eventually tip the economic balance for some in this group. In addition, we expect that some existing sole traders or microbusinesses will be motivated to grow their businesses and take on apprentices to do so.
Mobility within and between countries offers a route to rapidly plug skills shortages where the local labour force can’t be upskilled in the time required, though new arrivals may require some additional training to familiarise themselves with local building techniques or to achieve local certification. The ODI has explored in more detail what this might look like.
Despite the expected market shifts, devolved and UK governments still have a vital role to play:
| Area | Recommendation | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Apprenticeships | Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) and Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) should continue to promote and explore ways to increase uptake. This could look like some combination of incentives (i.e. more funding) and reducing barriers for employers. UK government should also support enabling work, especially pilots of brokerage schemes. | Apprenticeships remain a high-quality route, and brokerage can help motivated employers to take on an apprentice. |
| Data monitoring | DESNZ should maintain a watching brief on plumbing and heating apprenticeship numbers alongside other indicators of industry activity, with regular reporting intervals set. | If sustained declines occur, it may be necessary to respond with new policy. |
| Classroom training | DWP and DESNZ should continue to fund and support classroom-based training, focusing on quality improvement. | Quality should encompass both technical training and skills for work to make graduates more able to find work in the sector. |
| Mid-career pathways | DESNZ should help accelerate mid-career pathways (like MLPs) by making funding available (even through loans) and advertising schemes to underrepresented groups. | This provides a quick supply of motivated, mature entrants and addresses diversity gaps. |
There are certainly signals that plumbers and heating engineers could be in short supply in the years to come, but we are far from a crisis point.
We hypothesise that market forces, driven by increasing demand and price signals, will lead to the firming up of alternative pathways: notably the acceptance of classroom-trained entrants and the growing prominence of mid-career reskilling. This pragmatic shift towards flexibility, coupled with business innovation, will likely be the most fruitful approach for maintaining workforce numbers in the short-to-medium term.
Overall, we expect these changes to be broadly positive for the sector, though the transition to this new approach could be bumpy. Increasing the number of routes into the sector could open it to groups presently underrepresented, particularly women. There is also a risk that those with classroom training arrive with strong technical knowledge but without the soft skills needed by employers or to start at business. Targeted help from UK government may be needed here.
For households, there is a chance that this could translate into higher prices or variable quality. Householders using either trusted larger firms or personal recommendation should still be able to find a quality tradesperson.
Nesta will continue to watch this space, and we’ll explore shifting tack should current trends accelerate or market-driven solutions prove insufficient.
