The rise of GLP-1 weight-loss medicines has been breathtaking. In just a few years, the weight-loss medications landscape has expanded from one dominated by injectable medicines from two pharmaceutical companies to a crowded and rapidly evolving field. Today, we are seeing more competition, new formulations, new ways to take the drugs and a substantial pipeline of new treatments still to come. At the same time, uptake is rising, prices are beginning to fall in some countries and food retailers are adapting to increasing numbers of people who are eating differently.

What happens next could have consequences far beyond healthcare, shaping the future of the food industry, health policy and society.

To help us understand what could lie ahead, six key numbers offer clues about where GLP-1s are heading and the questions that follow.

By October 2025, health analytics company IQVIA was tracking 193 obesity medicines in development, up from 157 in January 2025. Part of this growth reflects greater tracking, particularly of companies in China, but it also points to an increasingly diverse medication pipeline such as new ways of administering the drugs. What was once a two-horse race between Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly is shifting to a crowded field of more than 30 companies. 

What to watch out for: How much of this increasingly diverse pipeline of new medications reaches the market, the extent to which they improve on existing drugs and what this might mean for health inequalities as some people may not be able to afford newer medicines.

Despite restricted prescribing criteria, tirzepatide (Mounjaro) became England's costliest medicine dispensed in the community (for example, in a pharmacy rather than a hospital) in 2025-26, accounting for £574 million of a total £11.6 billion bill; nearly five times the cost of the previous year. 

While these figures blend prescriptions of tirzepatide for both diabetes and obesity, they highlight the immense fiscal pressure these medicines exert on health systems, which is only at the beginning of the NHS’s planned 12-year rollout to obesity patients.

What to watch out for: Whether the wider rollout of obesity drugs delivers enough health benefit to justify the costs to the NHS, whether any new payment models emerge and any changes in drug costs and their impact on NHS roll out.

By mid 2026, 21% of US households (around 26 million) included someone who is a current GLP-1 user, up from 9% at the start of 2025. While healthcare systems and society differ internationally, The World Economic Forum has pointed to America as a bellwether for what other countries may see. The UK’s trajectory looks similar, as 6% of households now include at least one GLP-1 user, a sharp increase from 4% in 2025 and 2% in 2024. 

What to watch out for: The extent to which the UK’s GLP-1 use trajectory follows the path of the US or diverges - and what this means for health inequalities if people on the lowest incomes struggle to access GLP-1 medications.

Within eight weeks of its US launch, the oral version of semaglutide (Wegovy) accounted for around a third of new-to-brand prescriptions and nearly two-thirds of these patients had never taken a GLP-1 medication before. This suggests that pill options are not simply replacing injectables, but are expanding the total market by attracting a new set of customers, which could have important consequences for future uptake. 

What to watch out for: Whether pills materially expand the number and type of people using weight-loss medicines rather than simply replacing injections.

Following the expiry of the Indian patent for semaglutide in 2026, Novo Nordisk cut starting-dose prices of Wegovy by 48%. By July 2026 more than a dozen non-branded versions of semaglutide were being manufactured in India, showing how more players enter the market when patent protections fall away.  

What to watch out for: While UK patents for semaglutide are likely to remain in place until the early 2030s, the drug came off patent in 2026 in India, Canada and China. How will this further change prices and reshape access and demand?

In January 2026 alone, UK supermarkets launched or added to the shelf over 115 products tailored for GLP-1 users - featuring smaller portion sizes alongside higher protein and fibre content. Within one month, Morrisons introduced at least 53 products, Iceland at least 38, M&S at least 20 and Co-op introduced at least four. While this could be a positive signal for a healthier shift in food retail, it also risks creating a premium food category for people who can access the drugs and afford to buy these more expensive, tailored and nutrient-dense products.

What to watch out for: What the next moves by food retailers will be to adapt to markets where GLP-1s are more common.

Taken together, these six numbers describe a rapidly evolving class of medicines that are developing faster than the systems built around them. Healthcare providers will need to work out whether and how to pay for them. Patients and doctors will have to choose between them. Food retailers will need to change what they sell to suit customer needs. 

None of this makes these drugs a substitute for prevention. They do little to tackle the root causes that drive obesity in the first place. More will also need to be done to help people sustain weight loss after treatment. And the prospect of a premium "GLP-1 aisle" is a reminder that access could end up shaped by ability to pay privately rather than clinical need. 

To explore the consequences of the transformational changes that weight loss drugs may bring, Nesta is currently working to examine the future of GLP-1s. We will sketch what that world might look like, what it would mean for the people living in it and crucially identify the key questions policymakers should be asking now to ensure our future use of GLP-1s maximises public benefit. This forms part of our wider work on treatment for obesity - how treatment can be delivered more equitably and at scale, and the interaction of the growth of weight loss medications on the food that is available, purchased and marketed to us. 

Explore our work on GLP-1s to read more about the role of weight loss medications and treatments in reducing obesity.