In this guest blog for Nesta, Zoe Rostas, Policy Officer at the British Heart Foundation, explains why the healthy food standard will be critical for turning the tide on obesity and supporting efforts to reduce cardiovascular disease.

New analysis from British Heart Foundation (BHF) suggests that without further action, nearly 170,000 lives could be lost to cardiovascular disease (CVD) linked to excess weight and obesity in England over the next decade.

One year ago, in the 10 Year Health Plan for England, the UK government committed to introduce the healthy food standard (HFS) as part of its ‘moonshot to end the obesity epidemic’ and ambition to raise the healthiest generation of children ever. This policy will introduce mandatory reporting on the healthiness of food sales and health targets for all large food businesses.

While this announcement signalled a promising commitment to turn the tide on obesity and address the rise in diet-related illness across the country, we’ve seen little progress over the past 12 months and the HFS is at risk of losing momentum – something we cannot afford.

At BHF, we’ve published new analysis finding that without further action, nearly 170,000 lives could be lost to cardiovascular disease linked to excess weight and obesity in England over the next decade. This is based on data from the Global Burden of Disease, and population projections from the Office for National Statistics.

Since the early 1990s, obesity prevalence in England has roughly doubled, with 30% of adults and 15% of children now living with obesity. When those living with overweight are included, these figures rise to 66% of adults and 26% of children.

CVD affects over 7 million people in England and is one of the leading causes of premature death, contributing to over a fifth of the difference in life expectancy between the most and least deprived areas. Obesity is a major preventable risk factor for CVD, with around 1 in 9 cardiovascular deaths in England linked to excess weight. Bringing down obesity prevalence is therefore crucial to achieve government ambitions to reduce premature deaths from heart disease and stroke by a quarter over the next decade.

Poor dietary health, particularly excess consumption of foods high in fat, salt and sugar (HFSS), is a key driver of high obesity prevalence. It is widely accepted that this is primarily driven by structural factors rather than individual choice, namely our ‘obesogenic’ food environment - how food is marketed, displayed and sold to us, and socioeconomic inequalities. Less healthy options are more affordable, readily available and heavily marketed compared with healthier alternatives, making it incredibly difficult and costly for individuals to access a healthy diet.

This is particularly challenging for those living in more deprived areas and partly explains the disproportionate number of people living with obesity in these areas. In England, prevalence of overweight and obesity is highest in the most deprived communities and lowest in the least deprived. This contributes to inequalities in CVD prevalence and premature mortality across England, where the rate of early death from CVD is twice as high in the most deprived areas as it is in the least.

For the government to achieve its goal of halving the gap in healthy life expectancy between the richest and poorest regions of England, it must address the obesity challenge head on.

If dietary health does not improve, and obesity prevalence remains high, there could be serious consequences for the nation’s health.

Assuming current trends continue in line with projected population growth, BHF estimates that nearly 170,000 cardiovascular deaths in England could be linked to excess weight, including obesity, over the next decade. [1] That’s equivalent to over twice the capacity of the World Cup Final 2026 stadium. From 2026 to 2035, that’s approximately 16,500 to 17,000 deaths each year – around 45 lives lost each day.

The economic case for action is also compelling. In the UK, obesity-related costs are already high and forecast to grow over the next decade, reaching £150 billion in 2035 – an 18% increase from 2025. This includes financial costs such as NHS treatment and social care, and productivity costs to the economy, primarily due to economic inactivity, presenteeism, and absenteeism. Given current pressures on the NHS, social care and the economy, this trajectory is unsustainable.

Behind these figures are the daily experiences of people who may be experiencing serious, long-term impacts of obesity on their health, independence and quality of life.

Evidence-based, mandatory policies, which are targeted at the population-level, rather than individual behaviour change, are much more likely to be effective at preventing and reducing obesity.

In a food environment that makes healthy choices difficult, expecting individuals to simply change their behaviour to solve England’s obesity challenge is both unfair and unrealistic. While GLP-1 treatments are welcome for many, these cannot address the challenge of obesity prevention. The government can only improve the health of our nation if the conditions shaping our food environment change too, and it has support from the British public to do so.

This is where the HFS can make a difference.

By introducing mandatory reporting, which BHF and others called for last year, the government can shed light on the healthiness of food sales across large food businesses. As proposed by Nesta, this data can then be used to set mandatory targets incentivising food businesses to shift consumer purchasing towards healthier products. Importantly, businesses will be given flexibility in how they meet targets, for example through reformulation (making products healthier), or by promoting healthier options. The use of penalties for non-compliance should act as a powerful incentive for food businesses to meet targets.

Implementing an effective health target for supermarkets alone could lead to a reduction in the UK’s obesity prevalence by around a fifth. Over 5 years, a health target could mean around 40,000 fewer cases of high blood pressure, around 20,000 fewer cases of coronary heart disease and around 10,000 fewer instances of stroke.

At present, the HFS is one of the most promising policy options we have to improve diets at scale.

However, a year on from the HFS being announced, the government has not yet published a formal consultation or outlined a timeline for implementing mandatory reporting and targets. Without action, the HFS risks slipping down the political agenda or being subjected to delay or dilution, which has weakened other obesity-reduction policies in the past. This is all the more pressing with a change in Prime Minister on the horizon, which could leave the policy vulnerable to shifting politics.

Given that mandatory health targets are the part of the policy that will reduce obesity prevalence, rather than reporting alone, it is crucial that the government sets the cogs in motion to ensure that targets can be introduced by the end of this Parliament. Key to this is implementing mandatory reporting as soon as possible, to enable collection of the data necessary to set targets.

To maintain progress and ensure impact within this Parliament, alongside Nesta, BHF and our partners the Obesity Health Alliance are calling on the government to:

• publish a formal consultation on mandatory reporting before summer recess, with an intent to introduce reporting for all sectors in 2027, and
• set out a clear timeline for implementing mandatory targets by the end of this Parliament.

We must not lose momentum. Delaying action risks lives, worsening health inequalities and increasing long-term pressures on the economy and health services.

The government must seize this opportunity to address one of our most pressing public health challenges. Acting now could forge a healthier, more productive future for our nation.

[1] BHF analysis based on data from the Global Burden of Disease, and population projections from the Office for National Statistics. The term ‘excess weight’ is used to describe high body mass index (BMI), encompassing those living with overweight or obesity.