Five things we have learnt about childcare provision and potential in Wales
www.nesta.org.uk/blog/five-things-we-have-learnt-about-childcare-provision-and-potential-in-wales/
www.nesta.org.uk/blog/five-things-we-have-learnt-about-childcare-provision-and-potential-in-wales/
Mae uchelgais Llywodraeth Cymru i ehangu gofal plant a ariennir i 20 awr yr wythnos i blant rhwng naw mis a phedair oed yn gyfle nodedig i helpu datblygiad plant yn eu blynyddoedd cynharaf. Mewn gwlad lle mae 40% o blant dan bump oed yn byw mewn tlodi incwm cymharol, mae gofal plant hygyrch yn cynnig cyfle hanfodol i roi'r dechrau gorau mewn bywyd i bob plentyn. Os caiff ei wneud yn iawn, gallai'r polisi hwn helpu rhieni i ddychwelyd i'r gweithlu, lleihau costau byw, ac, yn bwysicaf oll, rhoi mynediad i bob plentyn at brofiadau dysgu cynnar sy'n cefnogi eu canlyniadau datblygiadol a'u cyfleoedd bywyd yn y dyfodol.
Nid yw cyflawni'r addewid hwn yn ymwneud â dod o hyd i le ffisegol i blant yn unig: mae hefyd yn ymwneud â sicrhau bod plant yn mynychu lleoliadau sy'n cefnogi eu datblygiad yn weithredol.
Yn Nesta, rydym wedi modelu argaeledd presennol gofal plant yng Nghymru ac wedi rhagweld sut y gallai gwahanol senarios ehangu effeithio ar fynediad at le gofal plant a darpariaeth â sgôr uchel. Dyma bum peth rydym wedi'u dysgu am y cyflwyniad arfaethedig, a sut y gall Llywodraeth Cymru ei wneud yn iawn.
Ar hyn o bryd, amcangyfrifir mai dim ond 65% o blant dwy i bedair oed cymwys sydd â mynediad at le gofal plant, gan adael diffyg o tua 26,300 o leoedd.
Mae'r bwlch yn y ddarpariaeth bresennol yn cael ei ddylanwadu'n fawr gan leoliad, yn amrywio o ddarpariaeth bron yn gyfan gwbl mewn rhai ardaloedd i brinder difrifol mewn eraill. Er enghraifft, mae lleoedd gofal plant ar gael i 96% o'r boblogaeth gymwys yn Ynys Môn, ond dim ond 41% o'r boblogaeth gymwys ym Merthyr Tudful. Mae pum awdurdod lleol (Caerdydd, Pen-y-bont ar Ogwr, Rhondda Cynon Taf, Abertawe aChasnewydd) yn cyfrif am tua 50% o'r diffyg cenedlaethol o ran mynediad at leoedd.
Mae bwlch pryderus o ran amddifadedd. Mae lleoedd gofal plant ar gael ar hyn o bryd i 54% o blant cymwys yn y cymdogaethau mwyaf difreintiedig yng Nghymru, o'i gymharu â 75% yn y lleiaf difreintiedig. Mae'n bwysig nodi, oherwydd bod tlodi a dwysedd poblogaeth uchel yn gysylltiedig yn agos yng Nghymru, fod y prinder lleoedd sydd ar gael yn cael ei yrru'n fwy gan ddwysedd poblogaeth drefol nag amddifadedd ei hun. Serch hynny, oherwydd bod babanod a phlant dan anfantais mewn sefyllfa dda i wneud y cynnydd datblygiadol mwyaf o ganlyniad i ddarpariaeth blynyddoedd cynnar o safon, gallai ehangu mynediad heb fynd i'r afael â'r anghydraddoldebau rhanbarthol ac economaidd hyn olygu bod y bwlch cyrhaeddiad yn ehangu, yn hytrach na chau.
Mae ein modelu yn dangos y bydd ehangu gofal plant a ariennir i bob plentyn rhwng un a phedair oed yn gofyn am 18,000 o leoedd ychwanegol, hyd yn oed os yw'r cyfraddau manteisio presennol yn aros yr un fath â'r lefelau presennol ar draws y cynigion gofal plant a Dechrau'n Deg presennol. Os yw'r galw am y cynnig newydd hwn yn cyfateb i lefelau cyfredol y defnydd o Dechrau'n Deg (tua 86%), mae'r diffyg yn codi i dros 45,000 o leoedd. Ar y lefel hon o bobl sy'n manteisio ar y lle, dim ond 57% o blant cymwys fydd â mynediad at le.
Fodd bynnag, mae ein modelu yn awgrymu pe bai gofal plant yn cael ei wneud yn gyffredinol ar gyfer plant dwy i bedair oed yn unig, a bod y nifer sy'n ei ddefnyddio yr un fath â'r cynnig Dechrau'n Deg presennol (86%), byddai'r diffyg mewn argaeledd yn gostwng o 26,300 i 23,700 o leoedd. Gallai hyn fod oherwydd, yn hanesyddol, bod darpariaeth Dechrau'n Deg wedi'i chyfyngu'n llym y tu ôl i ffiniau codau post lleol iawn, gan greu senario heddiw lle gall lleoedd a ariennir fod yn wag neu heb eu defnyddio'n ddigonol y tu mewn i ardaloedd dynodedig tra bod teuluoedd sy'n byw ychydig y tu allan wedi'u heithrio. Fodd bynnag, mae hyn yn tybio mai dim ond plant dwy i bedair oed sy'n meddiannu'r holl leoedd sydd ar gael, ac eithrio plant dan ddwy oed, ac nad yw'r galw'n codi ymhellach na lefelau presennol Dechrau'n Deg.
Mae tystiolaeth ryngwladol yn dangos yn gyson y gall addysg a gofal cynnar o ansawdd uchel ddarparu manteision gwybyddol a chymdeithasol-emosiynol parhaol i blant. Fodd bynnag, nid yw gofal plant nad yw o ansawdd uchel yn cynnig llawer o gefnogaeth ddatblygiadol a gall rwystro canlyniadau datblygiadol plant yn weithredol. Er bod ansawdd yn bwysig i bob plentyn, mae'r risgiau datblygiadol sy'n gysylltiedig â gofal o ansawdd gwael yn llawer mwy difrifol i fabanod dan ddwy oed.
Mae babanod yn dibynnu'n fawr ar ryngweithiadau sefydlog, straen isel, ac ymatebol iawn yn ystod niwroddatblygiad cynnar hollbwysig. Mae astudiaethau yn y DU (ee, SEED ac astudiaeth EPPE) yn dangos, er y gall rhywfaint o ofal o ansawdd uchel fod o fudd i fabanod, y gall treulio mwy nag 20 awr yr wythnos mewn lleoliad gofal grŵp nad yw o ansawdd uchel arwain at effeithiau negyddol ar ddatblygiad emosiynol ac ymddygiadol babanod.
Daw enghraifft rybuddiol o Quebec, Canada, lle bu ehangu cyffredinol cyflym ym 1997 yn fwy na'r cyflenwad o addysgwyr cymwys. Ers hynny, mae plant yr effeithiwyd arnynt gan y polisi hwn wedi cael eu cysylltu â phroblemau cymdeithasol-emosiynol mwy, cyfraddau uwch o broblemau ymddygiad ac iechyd gwaeth o'i gymharu â phlant hŷn nad effeithiwyd arnynt gan y newid polisi hwn.
Felly, i blant iau, mae'n arbennig o bwysig eu bod yn treulio amser mewn lleoliadau lle mae gan y staff gymwysterau uchel a lle mae nifer fach o blant fesul aelod o staff. Er bod safonau ansawdd uchel yn bwysig ar draws pob lleoliad, un ffordd o ddarparu mwy o leoedd fyddai cynyddu nifer y gwarchodwyr plant. Mae gwarchodwyr plant yn gweithredu mewn amgylcheddau cartref ar raddfa fach sy'n addas iawn ar gyfer diwallu anghenion datblygiadol dwys babanod, ond mae gweithlu gwarchodwyr plant yng Nghymru yn lleihau'n gyson. Ar hyn o bryd, dim ond 12% o leoedd gofal plant sy'n cael eu darparu gan warchodwyr plant. Dylai tyfu'r sector hwn fod yn flaenoriaeth benodol ar gyfer y cyflwyniad.
Un her allweddol wrth werthuso ansawdd y ddarpariaeth bresennol yw man dall data amlwg: dros chwarter (26%) o'r holl leoedd gofal plant yng Nghymru heb eu graddio gan Arolygiaeth Gofal Cymru (AGC) ar hyn o bryd.
Yn ein modelu, rydym yn diffinio lle 'sgôr uchel' fel un sy'n sgorio'n 'dda' neu'n 'rhagorol' ar draws pedwar parth CIW; mae lleoliadau ag unrhyw sgôr is—yn ogystal â'r rhai sy'n parhau i fod heb sgôr—yn disgyn y tu allan i'r meincnod hwn. Yn ôl y metrig hwn, dim ond 34% o blant cymwys yng Nghymru sydd â mynediad at le â sgôr uchel ar hyn o bryd.
Os yw'r cynnig yn ehangu i blant blwydd oed a bod cyfraddau manteisio yn cyfateb i lefelau Dechrau'n Deg cyfredol (86%), mae argaeledd lleoedd â sgôr uchel yn gostwng ymhellach i ddim ond 31%.
Fodd bynnag, mae'r data hefyd yn tynnu sylw at darged clir ar gyfer ymyrraeth: mae bron i dri chwarter o'r lleoliadau sy'n methu â chael statws uchel yn gwneud hynny oherwydd eu bod yn syrthio ar ei hôl hi yn y maes "Arweinyddiaeth a Rheolaeth", gan ddangos lle gall cefnogaeth dargedig gan y llywodraeth sicrhau'r gwelliant mwyaf uniongyrchol.
Mae Llywodraeth Cymru yn cydbwyso'r angen hanfodol am ddarpariaeth o ansawdd uchel yn erbyn y pwysau ariannol aruthrol sy'n wynebu teuluoedd heddiw. Mae gwerth i gyflymder, ond ni all ddod ar draul datblygiad plant.
Ein hargymhelliad canolog yw bod yn rhaid i Lywodraeth Cymru drefnu'r ehangu yn ôl oedran ac ansawdd.
Dylai llunwyr polisi ganolbwyntio ar ehangu darpariaeth o ansawdd uchel ar gyfer y garfan graidd rhwng dwy a phedair oed yn gyntaf, gan gymryd camau i greu mwy o leoedd o ansawdd uchel a chefnogi'r gweithlu.
Mae anghydraddoldebau daearyddol llym yn amlwg ledled Cymru. Yn hytrach na chyflwyniad unffurf, dylid targedu cyllid at ardaloedd lle mae'r angen mwyaf a'i bwysoli yn ôl amddifadedd er mwyn sicrhau bod cymorth yn cyrraedd y plant sydd ei angen fwyaf.
Drwy ddilyniannu’r cyflwyniad hwn a blaenoriaethu ansawdd dros gyflymder, gall Cymru adeiladu system gofal plant gynaliadwy sy’n grymuso rhieni sy’n gweithio ac yn rhoi’r dechrau gorau posibl mewn bywyd i bob plentyn sengl.
The Welsh Government’s ambition to expand funded childcare to 20 hours a week for children aged nine months to four years is a landmark opportunity to help children’s development in their earliest years. In a nation where 40% of under-fives live in relative income poverty, accessible childcare offers a vital chance to give every child the best start in life. Done right, this policy could help parents return to the workforce, ease the cost of living, and, most importantly, give every child access to early learning experiences that support their developmental outcomes and future life chances.
Delivering on this promise is not just about finding physical space for children: it is also about ensuring that children are attending settings which actively support their development.
At Nesta, we have modelled the current availability of childcare in Wales and projected how different expansion scenarios could impact access to both a childcare place and highly rated provision. Here are five things we’ve learnt about the proposed rollout, and how the Welsh Government can get it right.
Currently, only an estimated 65% of eligible two-to-four-year-olds have access to a childcare place, leaving a shortfall of around 26,300 places.
The gap in current provision is heavily influenced by location, ranging from near-total coverage in some areas to severe shortages in others. For example, there are childcare places available for 96% of the eligible population in Ynys Môn, but only 41% of the eligible population in Merthyr Tydfil. Five local authorities (Cardiff, Bridgend, Rhondda Cynon Taf, Swansea and Newport) account for around 50% of the national deficit in access to places.
Final data story maps 1 and 2
Map of childcare place availability for eligible children across Welsh local authorities, showing stark geographic inequalities with near-total coverage in some areas and severe shortages in others.
There is a worrying gap when it comes to deprivation. Childcare places are currently available for 54% of eligible children in the most deprived neighbourhoods in Wales, compared to 75% in the least deprived. It is important to note that, because poverty and high population density are closely linked in Wales, the shortage of available places is driven more by urban population density than by deprivation itself. Nonetheless, because disadvantaged babies and children stand to make the most significant developmental gains from quality early years provision, expanding access without addressing these regional and economic inequalities could mean that the attainment gap widens, rather than closes.
Our modeling indicates that expanding funded childcare to all one-to-four-year-olds will require 18,000 additional places, even if current take-up rates remain the same as current levels across the existing childcare and Flying Start offers. If demand for this new offer matches current Flying Start uptake levels (around 86%), the shortfall rises to over 45,000 places. At this level of uptake, only 57% of eligible children will have access to a place.
Visualisation comparing models for local authorities
Chart of childcare place availability by local authority under two expansion scenarios, showing that expanding the offer to one-year-olds significantly increases the shortfall of places compared to targeting two-to-four-year-olds in all 22 local authorities.
However, our modelling suggests that if childcare was made universal for two-to-four-year-olds only, and uptake was the same as the current Flying Start offer (86%), the shortfall in availability would fall from 26,300 to 23,700 places. This could be because, historically, Flying Start provision has been strictly restricted behind hyper-local postcode boundaries, creating a scenario today where funded places may be empty or underutilised inside designated areas while families living just outside are excluded. However, this assumes that all available places are taken up by two-to-four-year-olds only, excluding children below two, and that demand rises no further than current Flying Start levels.
International evidence consistently shows that high-quality early education and care can deliver lasting cognitive and socio-emotional benefits for children. However, childcare that is not high-quality offers little developmental support and can actively hinder childrens’ developmental outcomes. While quality is important for all children, the developmental risks associated with poor-quality care are far more acute for infants under two.
Babies rely heavily on stable, low-stress, and highly responsive interactions during critical early neurodevelopment. UK studies (eg, SEED and the EPPE study) show that while some high-quality care can be beneficial for babies, spending more than 20 hours a week in a group care setting that is not high quality can lead to negative impacts on babies’ emotional and behavioural development.
A cautionary example comes from Quebec, Canada, where a rapid universal expansion in 1997 outpaced the supply of qualified educators. Children affected by this policy have since been associated with greater social-emotional problems, higher rates of behavioural problems and poorer health compared to older children who weren’t affected by this policy change.
Therefore, for younger children, it is particularly important that they spend time in settings where staff are highly qualified and there are a small number of children per staff member. While high-quality standards are important across all settings, one way to provide more places could be by increasing the number of childminders. Childminders operate in small-scale, home environments that are well suited to meeting the intensive developmental needs for babies, but the childminder workforce in Wales is steadily declining. Currently, only 12% of childcare places are provided by childminders. Growing this sector should be a distinct priority for the rollout.
A key challenge in evaluating the quality of existing provision is a notable data blind spot: over a quarter (26%) of all childcare places in Wales are currently unrated by Care Inspectorate Wales (CIW).
In our modeling, we define a ‘highly rated’ place as one that scores ‘good’ or ‘excellent’ across all four CIW domains; settings with any lower rating - as well as those that remain unrated - fall outside this benchmark. By this metric, only 34% of eligible children in Wales currently have access to a highly-rated place.
If the offer expands to one-year-olds and take-up rates match current Flying Start levels (86%), the availability of highly-rated places falls further to just 31%.
Visualisation comparing models for 1-4s high qual vs all
Chart of the percentage of children allocated a place versus a highly-rated place in the current system and four expansion scenarios, demonstrating that rapid expansion lowers the overall availability of highly-rated care.
However, the data also highlights a clear target for intervention: nearly three-quarters of settings that miss out on highly-rated status do so solely because they fall behind on the "leadership and management" domain, demonstrating where targeted government support can deliver the greatest immediate improvement.
ECPLC total settings by quality domain (%)
Chart of childcare setting ratings across the four Care Inspectorate Wales domains (care and development, environment, leadership and management, and wellbeing), highlighting that a quarter of places are unrated and that leadership and management is the main area where settings miss out on high ratings.
The Welsh Government is balancing the vital need for high-quality provision against the immense financial pressures facing families today. Speed has value, but it cannot come at the expense of child development.
Our central recommendation is that the Welsh Government must sequence the expansion by age and quality.
Policymakers should focus on expanding high-quality provision for the core two-to-four-year-old cohort first while taking steps to create more high-quality places and support the workforce.
Stark geographic inequalities are clear across Wales. Rather than a uniform rollout, funding should be targeted to areas where need is greatest and weighted by deprivation to ensure that support reaches the children who need it most.
By sequencing this rollout and prioritising quality over speed, Wales can build a sustainable childcare system that empowers working parents and gives every single child the best possible start in life.
