The UK was the first country to set ambitious net zero targets and is the first major economy to halve its emissions, driven largely by power sector decarbonisation. But it is off-track to meet all future carbon budgets and targets.

Reducing emissions matters: it is the only way to keep global temperatures within liveable limits and mitigate climate damages. Human-induced warming is already on track to blow past 1.5° Celsius above pre-industrial levels, to surpass 2ºC by 2040, and has the potential to reach 4ºC by 2100 when a child born today reaches old age. 

To understand the UK’s successes to date and factors which will shape its trajectory to 2040, when a child born today comes of age, we explore the fundamental facts a next government will inherit when it comes to net zero. 

Understanding that the UK’s electricity grid needs to be substantially expanded to decarbonise sectors such as transport, heat and industry tees up choices for a next government about planning, the role of the market and capital investment. 

Digging into the shift in the energy sector’s economics, from high operational costs to higher capital investment and lower running costs, means you can engage with choices about industrial strategy and the role of the public and private sectors. 

And understanding what the public think about climate change policies and how different parts of government do and don’t work together means you can assess where to invest time and resources into engagement and governance. 

Such is the scale of change needed to transition to a net zero economy and society, it can be easy to focus on single sectors, levers of change, constraints or opportunities. This set of facts is intended to paint a wider picture and to provide a jumping off point for those seeking to navigate the policy space.

For more detail, you can explore the choices the next UK Government will need to grapple with and Nesta’s work on home decarbonisation specifically.