• The healthy food standard could slash childhood obesity - with 400,000 fewer children living with obesity after five years of the policy being implemented
• If supermarkets met their targets as outlined in the policy, Nesta analysis reveals that childhood obesity prevalence would drop by almost a quarter (15.4% to 11.8%) over that timeframe
• Time is running out: the UK government should implement the policy in full by 2029 in order for these benefits to be realised by 2035

London, UK: The government’s proposed healthy food standard policy could reduce childhood obesity by almost a quarter (23%) over five years, Nesta analysis reveals, resulting in around 400,000 fewer children living with obesity in the UK by 2035 if legislation is passed in this Parliament.

The healthy food standard was announced by Health Secretary Wes Streeting a year ago, on 29 June 2025, aiming to reduce obesity by changing how food is marketed, promoted and sold to the general public. Based on a targets policy developed by Nesta, it will require large food retailers to report on the healthiness of their overall sales and to meet targets for that healthiness score.

Nesta, the UK’s innovation and research foundation, modelled the impact that the policy would have on children. Across all children, obesity prevalence would drop from 15.4% to 11.8% within five years (based on 2024 rates), with 400,000 fewer children living with obesity if the 11 largest retailers modelled reach their health targets. This is based on calculating the necessary energy intake changes only for children who are living with excess weight (overweight or obese) only. For example, it found that if grocery retailers met their targets, the policy would lead to those aged between 5 and 16 years old that are already living with excess weight

consuming between 34-68 fewer calories a day for boys and 31-55 fewer calories a day for girls, depending on their age. This means that under the healthy food standard, Nesta estimates an 11-year-old child with excess weight would consume 47 fewer calories per day - the equivalent of a bicycle ride of under 20 minutes.

Getting these reductions in childhood obesity by 2035 at the earliest relies on the healthy food standard being implemented in full by 2029. Nesta recommends that a sales-weighted average NPM (NPM) score be used to set health targets and is urging the UK government to implement the legislation as soon as possible, in order to realise the ambition set out in the 10-Year Plan for Health of raising the healthiest generation of children ever.

Lauren Bowes Byatt, director in Nesta’s healthy life mission, said: “The government’s healthy food standard puts food retailers on the path to radically improving the health of Britain’s children. Supermarkets could help slash childhood obesity rates by hitting the targets and getting healthier food on our shelves. But the government must work quickly if they want to see these benefits.

“We have seen that policies aimed at tackling childhood obesity have faced unacceptable delays - a child born when the government announced its junk food advertising restrictions was halfway through primary school by the time these regulations came into force in January. To avoid a repeat of this, the government should implement the health food standard policy as soon as possible with a consultation on mandatory reporting launched before summer.”

Dr Ian Walker, executive director of policy at Cancer Research UK, said: "Overweight and obesity raises the risk of at least 13 types of cancer in adults, and helping children keep a healthy weight means they are more likely to maintain a healthy weight in adulthood.

"The world around us, however, can make healthy choices difficult, which is why government action is so important. This analysis indicates the impact that the healthy food standard could have - it's important that the government introduces this as soon as possible, to help reduce obesity rates and prevent future cancer cases."

John Maingay, director of policy and influencing at British Heart Foundation said: “This analysis highlights the powerful role supermarkets can play in reducing childhood obesity by shifting purchases towards healthier options. Creating the conditions that make healthier choices easier is a vital step forward.

“Children living with obesity are more likely to become adults with obesity, increasing their risk of heart attack and stroke - so early action is crucial. The Government now has a clear opportunity to act. Publishing the consultation without delay is key to securing these benefits as quickly as possible and protecting the health of the next generation.”

Notes to editors

1. Nesta’s analysis on the impact of the healthy food standard on childhood obesity rates is published here.
2. Nesta’s original proposal and analysis modelled the impact that supermarket targets would have on adult obesity. Nesta is updating this analysis and has also estimated the impact on childhood obesity. In the analysis, targets are set using a sales-weighted average (SWA) converted NPM (cNPM) score. To model the impact that the healthy food standard would have on childhood obesity, reductions in calorie intake were estimated based on retailers meeting an SWA cNPM score of 69. This reduction in calorie intake was adjusted for age and sex to estimate the impact of health targets on childhood obesity in England, Scotland and also Great Britain as a whole. In the absence of suitable datasets in Wales, we make the assumption that the impact on obesity will be the same as that in England for the purpose of calculating a figure for Great Britain. Nesta’s analysis is based on 2024 childhood obesity rates and assumes these otherwise remain stable - long-term trend modelling was not conducted as part of this analysis.
3. If the policy was implemented in full by 2029 as Nesta has recommended and retailers hit the targets by 2030, then Nesta estimates childhood obesity would be reduced by around 23% in 2035.
4. Nesta has used calories to illustrate the policy impact on children. This is not to propose or suggest that children themselves should reduce their calorie intake by taking individual action to reduce the calories they consume. Instead, the healthy food standard is designed to ensure food retailers make changes that would lead to these calorie reductions happening through the food that customers purchase, such as by putting healthier ready meals on offer, tweaking the recipes of sandwiches so they contain slightly less fat or giving more shelf space to cereals that have less sugar.
5. For more information on the analysis or to speak to one of the experts involved, please contact Kieran Lowe, Senior Media Manager, on +447942499048 or [email protected]. Spokespeople are available for broadcast interviews.

About Nesta

Nesta is a research and innovation foundation that designs, tests and scales solutions for the biggest challenges of our time.

Driven by a vision to improve the lives of millions of people, our focus up to 2030 is on three missions: breaking the link between family background and life chances, halving obesity and cutting household carbon emissions.

We work with partners to develop high-potential solutions and test them as they evolve, drawing on expertise in qualitative and quantitative research, data science, behavioural science and design.

Once confident in the effectiveness of a solution, we take it to scale. We create national policy proposals, develop consumer-facing products and services, build and spin out commercial ventures and harness the power of the arts.

We work with two specialised units: BIT applies a deep understanding of human behaviour to help clients achieve their goals. Challenge Works designs and runs challenge prizes to spark innovation in science, technology and society. Find out more at nesta.org.uk