The recent release of the 2024-2025 early child development statistics provides more than just a data update: it offers a critical look at the early outcomes of Scotland’s youngest citizens.

At Nesta, we often talk about the first 1,000 days as the most important period for a child's development. The statistics released this week, gathered by health visitors during three routine reviews, represent the most granular and useful evidence available to determine whether the national systems are truly set up to make those days count.

The Scottish Government currently has a target of reducing the number of children with developmental concerns at 27 months to 13.5% by 2030. The latest figures show that 17% of children had developmental concerns recorded at this stage, almost exactly the same as seen in 2023-2024. This tentative stable picture follows increases in developmental concerns following the Covid-19 pandemic. There is still significant work for the Scottish Government to do to meet its 2030 target. 

At the 27-30 month check, concerns are most likely to be seen around speech, language and communication. At the four-to-five-year check, the major concerns are emotional and behavioural concerns, with over half of those concerns being newly identified at this point.

Consistent with trends in other nations, boys had a higher proportion of recorded developmental concerns than girls across all stages in 2024-2025. This difference was most significant at the 27-30 month review, where 21% of boys had a concern compared to 11% of girls, and remained similar at the four-to-five-year review (23% of boys vs. 14% of girls). These are broadly similar to last year’s figures in Scotland.

When we drill down into the data by socio-economic grouping, a familiar and stark inequality emerges: children living in areas of higher deprivation (as measured by the Scottish multiple index of deprivation, or SMID) are still significantly more likely to have developmental concerns recorded than their peers in wealthier areas. Children in the most deprived areas are significantly more likely to have a concern recorded at both the 27-30 month and four-to-five-year reviews compared to those in the least deprived areas. At the 27-30 month review, the proportion of children with a recorded concern in the most deprived areas (24%) is more than double that of children in the least deprived areas (9%).

In 2024-2025, 37% of children who were 'looked after' at the time of their 27-30 month review had a recorded concern about their development, compared to 16% of children overall, making them twice as likely to have a concern recorded. This is an improvement from 2023-2024, where 40% of ‘looked-after’ children had a recorded concern, although it is important to note that the overall number of children who are considered ‘looked-after’ is falling.

These inequalities highlight the need to adopt highly targeted, place-based whole family support and align resources and interventions with the communities where the challenge is greatest.

A key point of concern for the incoming Scottish Government should be the timing of when support is provided. Currently, much of our national target-setting and reporting is focused on the 27-30 month review.

This 27-30 month check is not enough: data indicates that over 50% of speech, language, and communication concerns identified at the 27–30 month review are new issues not previously flagged at earlier reviews. There are opportunities to identify issues and provide support at an earlier stage, for example between the 13–15 month assessment and the 27-month milestone. This time provides an opportunity to provide early intervention in response to emerging difficulties, ensuring help is available the moment a need arises rather than waiting for the next scheduled check-in.

Our work on improving early help for babies and their families in Scotland highlights that the "how" matters as much as the "what." We need to ensure that local areas have the focus and resources to support families during the baby and toddler months, rather than playing catch-up in the preschool years.

Nesta has also developed data profiles to help local areas develop their children’s services. These profiles are designed to help local authorities and health boards bridge the gap between "having data" and "taking action," providing the insights needed to tailor support to the specific developmental landscape of their area.

With the Scottish Parliament election just days away, these figures should be at the heart of every party's thinking. The next government has a clear opportunity to refocus on the earliest years through a data-led, preventative lens that: 

• creates clear cross-government ambition around pregnancy and early childhood, with strong commitment to the reduction of developmental concerns
• recommits to holistic family support with a focus on early help in the early years
• reduces child poverty for families with babies and young children by increasing the Best Start Grant and Best Start Foods to target support for families with babies where poverty is most prevalent. 
• uses data-led prevention, moving from using data to report on progress to using data to trigger support and ensuring that local areas are better able to use administrative data to offer help the moment a family needs it, rather than waiting for a milestone to be missed.

Charts created by Nesta’s data journalist Charlie Meyrick