• Most thorough analysis to date shows UK’s productivity costs from obesity and excess weight twice as high as previously thought
• Without action, productivity costs of obesity and excess weight are projected to rise by £5.3 billion over next decade to £36 billion in 2035
• Total yearly costs of obesity and excess weight, including to NHS and social care, as high as £126 billion

London, UK – Obesity and excess weight are costing the UK economy £126 billion a year, including £31 billion in reduced productivity, a new study finds.

Two thirds of adults in the UK are living with obesity or excess weight. New analysis, commissioned by innovation foundation Nesta and conducted by Frontier Economics, reveals the productivity cost of the UK's escalating obesity crisis. At £31 billion a year, the amount is equivalent to cutting 3p off the rate of income tax. It is more than the entire additional funding settlement for the NHS, announced in the recent Comprehensive Spending Review.

Productivity growth - the amount of goods and services produced by a country, compared to the amount of work and resources used to make them - is low in the UK compared to nations with comparable economies.

The new report estimates that obesity and excess weight is contributing to the UK’s productivity problems. This is due to health issues causing lower productivity while at work, more sick days, higher unemployment and lost working years due to early deaths.

The report’s analysis of the cost of obesity and excess weight in lost productivity is twice that estimated in a previous 2023 study (£15 billion). This is in large part due to the analysis being the first of its kind to include estimates for obesity-related early mortality and the impact of obesity on productivity among those at work. For example, people who are living with obesity are more likely to experience health problems including limited physical mobility and higher rates of mental health difficulties.

In addition, the report finds that the overall yearly cost of obesity and excess weight to the UK economy is as high as £126 billion. This is primarily from costs through years of good quality life lost to weight-related conditions (£71.4 billion), such as type 2 diabetes, cancer, high blood pressure, heart disease, strokes and weakened bones, alongside the costs from lost productivity (£30.8 billion), costs to the NHS in treating obesity-related conditions (£12.6 billion), financial costs in formal social care (£1.2 billion) and costs in lost work time and opportunities from providing informal care (£10.5 billion).

Nesta has strongly welcomed the focus on obesity in the government’s forthcoming 10 Year Plan for Health. Reducing obesity and excess weight would unlock significant health and economic benefits. The analysis shows that if obesity and excess weight fell by 5% each year for the next five years - reducing obesity prevalence from 32% to 25% by 2030 - the UK would see productivity gains of £24bn over five years.

Tim Leunig, chief economist at Nesta said: “We have known for years that obesity is a terrible problem for our nation’s health. This analysis shows that it is also a significant economic issue. Allowing obesity to continue to rise creates another economic headwind - at a time when the country is already struggling.”

Henry Dimbleby, health campaigner and former government food tsar said: “We’ve created a food system that’s poisoning our population and bankrupting the state. This report shows that poor diet now costs the UK a shocking £126 billion a year. That’s not a crisis. That’s a collapse. If we’re going to stop it, we need to act together—government, business, civil society. Because no one can afford for this to carry on.”

Nesta previously published the most comprehensive assessment to date of the impact of policies designed to reduce obesity. The most effective combination of policies, including mandatory healthiness targets for retailers and increased access to GLP1s, would reduce obesity by around 50% over five years.

Notes to editors

1. ‘Excess weight’ here refers to the category of ‘overweight’ - meaning a Body Mass index (BMI) of 23 kg/m2 to 27.4 kg/m2 for people with South Asian, Chinese, other Asian, Middle Eastern, Black African or African–Caribbean backgrounds, or 25 kg/m2 to 29.9 kg/m2 for people from other backgrounds. ‘Excess weight’ is used alongside ‘obesity’ - meaning a BMI higher than 27.5 kg/m2 for people with South Asian, Chinese, other Asian, Middle Eastern, Black African or African–Caribbean backgrounds or higher than 30 kg/m2 for people from other backgrounds. The different thresholds for BMI reflect updated 2025 NICE guidelines.
2. Frontier Economics’ methodology is set out in its report, The Impact of Obesity on Productivity in the UK [attached]. Frontier Economics used an impact framework to calculate the report’s cost estimates, including risk factors to obesity, wider societal factors such as the food environment or regulations on High Fat, Salt and Sugar foods that are related with these risk factors. The report uses various channels through which obesity could lead to a reduction in the economy’s effective labour supply, such as poorer health outcomes amongst people with obesity. The report sets out that these factors can contribute to a decline in overall labour force participation and in-work productivity, which have a direct negative impact on the UK’s economic activity (static effect). The report notes that its cost estimates do not include, firstly any deterioration in the population’s general health driven by obesity that translate to a reduction in the effective labour supply available in the economy, which can in turn lead to a reduction in economic growth. It also does not estimate costs which are knock-on impacts for welfare payments (e.g. unemployment benefits, or disability-related benefits) were not directly costed in our study: following UK Government best practice, these are considered ‘transfers’ (from Government to individuals) and are not considered as societal costs.
3. The modelling used in this report estimates the cost to the NHS at £12.6bn. Frontier's previous modelling in 2023 estimated it at £19bn. This is because the newer study uses prevalence of diagnosed disease, rather than estimates of disease prevalence, and because it uses a different scaling factor for the cost of excess weight on the NHS based on more robust evidence than previous estimates. The specific cost of obesity to the NHS in this report is modelled at £9.3bn which is 43% greater than the UK Government's estimate for the cost of obesity.
4. For more information on the analysis or to speak to one of the experts involved, please contact Mark Byrne, on 020 7438 2576 or [email protected]. Spokespeople are available for broadcast interviews.

About Nesta

Nesta is an independent think tank focused on solving society’s biggest challenges.

Nesta conducts experiments with public and private organisations, builds and invests in early-stage ventures, and shapes policy.

Our three missions are to give every child a fair start, help people live healthy lives, and create a sustainable future where the economy works for both people and the planet.

For over 20 years, Nesta has worked to support, encourage and inspire innovation. Harnessing the rigour of science and the creativity of design, we design, test and scale solutions to change millions of lives for the better. Find out more at nesta.org.uk