• New modelling evaluates the effectiveness of introducing what would be the first-ever UK tax based on the Nutrient Profiling Model (NPM), a holistic measure of the healthiness of food
• Analysis finds tax could have potentially large impact in reducing obesity rates but would likely modestly increase food prices, highlighting that the government’s healthy food standard is likely to be as or more effective at reducing obesity without this additional cost to consumers

London, UK - A tax on unhealthy food could reduce rates of adult obesity in the UK by 16% but increase the cost of the average basket of groceries by around 1% for consumers, the research and innovation foundation Nesta finds.

Nesta’s analysis, Modelling the impact of a tax on unhealthy foods, looks at whether the UK’s Nutrient Profiling Model (NPM) - a measure used to determine ‘less-healthy’ food in policy and regulation - could be an effective model for a tax policy designed to reduce obesity rates in the UK, including through comparing it to previously-examined tax proposals and examples of food taxes in other countries.

Nesta commissioned the consultancy Oxford Economics to assess the costs and benefits of this novel tax and Nesta’s analysis also looked at this in light of existing high-impact policy proposals. The analysis finds that an NPM-based tax could lead to a reduction in adult obesity of around 16%.

However, the analysis also finds that while an NPM-based tax could be effective at reducing obesity and raise up to £1.6 billion in revenue for the UK government, it would likely increase the average price of a typical food basket for consumers by around 1%. While groceries that are classed as ‘healthy’ shouldn’t increase in cost, for some of the most unhealthy products - such as chocolates and sugary snacks -prices under the tax could rise by up to 30%.

While an NPM-based tax on less healthy food could be a powerful lever for improving health in the UK, Nesta believes that the government should focus on implementing the commitments set out in the 10-Year Health Plan for England, which includes policies that should significantly improve public health. The government’s healthy food standard, in particular, could lead to a 20% reduction in obesity and would not have a significant impact on either the costs to retailers or the costs of consumers’ shopping baskets, according to an independent economic assessment of Nesta’s proposal for a targets-based policy.

Hugo Harper, director of healthy life at Nesta, said: "Obesity can lead to people suffering from debilitating conditions such as diabetes, as well as costing the NHS around £12 billion a year. Our analysis adds to the evidence that shows taxation can be a highly effective lever for reducing obesity. Too many previous government health measures have failed to make an impact because they have been small-scale or relied on individual willpower, when what is sold and marketed to us has made it harder to have a healthy diet.

“While a tax based on a more holistic measure of food could reduce obesity rates in Britain and raise additional revenues for public health, any tax on unhealthy food is likely to come with some cost to consumers. Our analysis shows that a tax can be designed so that higher prices fall on unhealthy foods, but the reality is that many people are already struggling with food prices.

“We believe the government should move forward with implementing the healthy food standard, which was announced in the 10-year plan for health. A policy that sets targets for the largest grocery retailers in the UK, such as the healthy food standard, would reduce obesity rates while having very little impact on food prices."

The UK’s NPM is a measure that scores products based on their nutrient content, balancing healthy and less-healthy nutrients. Food and drinks exceeding a set threshold of fat, salt and sugar are classified as HFSS and subject to regulation. The NPM was first published in 2004, but in 2018, the Department of Health and Social Care commissioned Public Health England to review the NPM to bring it in line with current UK dietary recommendations. The updated NPM was published in January 2026 but is not yet in force.

Notes to editors

1. Nesta’s analysis uses product-level, unweighted data acquired from Worldpanel by Numerator, an international market research company. The primary dataset comprises GB food and drink purchases taken into the home (Take Home) from 1st January to 31st December 2024 for a sample of over 30,000 British households, and includes demographic, nutrition, price and volume data. We also calculated a summary figure using Worldpanel by Numerator’s GB Out of Home data, for the period 1st April to 31st December 2021.
2. For more information on the analysis or to speak to one of the experts involved, please contact Kieran Lowe, Senior Media Manager, on 020 7438 2576 or [email protected]. Spokespeople are available for broadcast interviews.

About Nesta

Nesta is a research and innovation foundation that designs, tests and scales solutions for the biggest challenges of our time.

Driven by a vision to improve the lives of millions of people, our focus up to 2030 is on three missions: breaking the link between family background and life chances, halving obesity and cutting household carbon emissions.

We work with partners to develop high-potential solutions and test them as they evolve, drawing on expertise in qualitative and quantitative research, data science, behavioural science and design.

Once confident in the effectiveness of a solution, we take it to scale. We create national policy proposals, develop consumer-facing products and services, build and spin out commercial ventures and harness the power of the arts.

We work with two specialised units: BIT applies a deep understanding of human behaviour to help clients achieve their goals. Challenge Works designs and runs challenge prizes to spark innovation in science, technology and society. Find out more at nesta.org.uk