London, UK – 9 April 2026 – Heat pump installers and heating engineers across the UK expect low-carbon heating to quickly become a significant source of revenue - with 1 in 4 (25%) anticipating that between a quarter and half of their income will come from low-carbon heating sources by winter, new polling from Nesta finds.

The in-depth survey of 200 gas heating engineers and heat pump installers, conducted by Censuswide in March, found that the majority (70%1) of respondents expected that heat pumps would deliver between 10% and 50% of their revenue by the winter. Nesta is supporting this shift through its Start at Home initiative, designed to help installers build confidence with heat pump installations for customers.

UK heat pump sales reached another record high in 2025 and interest in low-carbon technology has increased as fears of an energy crisis grow, with reports that sales for heat pumps have gone up by 30% since the start of the conflict in Iran and the Middle East. Nesta’s survey suggests heating engineers who seek hands-on training are best placed to diversify and grow their businesses as the transition to low-carbon heating sources, such as heat pumps, gathers pace.

Six in 10 (60%) respondents say hands-on experience with new kit such as heat pumps – whether testing kit at a wholesaler(26%), seeing it in action in a customer’s home (20%) or trying it themselves (14%) – is the most effective way to learn before installation. A previous survey by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero revealed that only 27% of newly trained heat pump installers completed a heat pump installation within a year of training, due partly to a lack of confidence in the technology and the installation process.

Britain needs tens of thousands more trained engineers to hit 450,000 heat pump installations per year by 2030 – part of the national drive to cut greenhouse gas emissions and reach emission targets by 2050.

By building confidence and know-how during the spring and summer, when heating engineers typically have more availability to upskill, they can expand the services they offer and future‑proof their businesses through access to reliable, well‑paid work in the long term. Start at Home, which enables heating engineers to fit a government-funded heat pump in their homes, provides precisely this kind of training opportunity.

Madeleine Gabriel, Nesta’s Director of Sustainable Future, said: “Low-carbon heating is becoming central to how heating engineers make a living, so we need to make it easier for them to get hands-on with the technology, build skills that pay and feel secure as demand grows. Our existing heating workforce will help to drive a low-carbon future in homes across the UK - but we have to ensure they are well equipped in order for this to happen.”

Matthew Kemp, installer at Leaping Hare Renewables in Norfolk, said: “Heat pumps are a great example of where hands-on learning makes the difference. Once you’ve installed it and seen how it runs day to day, you understand the design and commissioning details in a way a course can’t replicate. For experienced heating engineers like myself, as well as the next generation, including my daughter Hope, it offers a great opportunity to upskill and get ready for the growing demand for low-carbon heating.”

Nesta’s previous Start at Home pilot scheme saw all participants benefit from improved understanding of system design and installation through hands-on installation practice. Most described the gain as ‘substantial’ and over half reported a significant boost in confidence in heat pumps.

Those interested in a funded heat pump can find and register for a scheme that works for them at: startathome.org.uk. Nesta’s programme brings together companies across England, Scotland and Wales that help heating engineers fit a government-funded heat pump at home.

Through Start at Home, Nesta is providing up to £2 million in funding to companies that supply heat pumps for heating engineers to install in their own homes. Normally, installation companies are not reimbursed right away when they provide a heat pump through the Boiler Upgrade Scheme in England and Wales or the Home Energy Scotland Grant. Nesta’s funding will act as a repayable financial buffer, covering costs of up to £500,000 per company, until these companies receive their reimbursement. Since the initiative started in autumn 2025, over 1,000 heating engineers have expressed their interest.

Start at Home can help engineers to get on the path to MCS certification if they seek it. MCS is the UK’s quality mark for smaller-scale renewable energy systems including heat pumps and solar panels. MCS, which stands for Microgeneration Certification Scheme, sets the standards that consumers should expect from a certified installer and their products.

-ENDS-

Start at Home brings together companies that help heating engineers fit a government-funded heat pump at home. Installation may not be fully subsidised, additional costs may apply. Scheme participation and the Boiler Upgrade Scheme and Home Energy Scotland funding are subject to eligibility and T&Cs.

Notes to editors

1. ‘10-24%’ and ’25-49%’ answers combined.
2. For more information on the project or to speak to one of the experts or a case study that was involved, please contact [email protected]. Spokespeople are available for broadcast interviews.
   
   About the research

The research was conducted by Censuswide, among a sample of 200 heat pump installers and heating engineers across the UK. The data was collected between 02/03/2026 – 06/03/2026. Censuswide abides by and employs members of the Market Research Society and follows the MRS code of conduct and ESOMAR principles. Censuswide is also a member of the British Polling Council.

1. Start at Home schemes are available through the following partners:

• Start with Grant by Grant UK
• Start at Home by Renewables Centre
• Alto Assured Start at Home by Alto Energy Limited
• myVAILLIANT by Vaillant
• HPIN+ by HPIN and EDF Heat Pumps
• Start at Home by Thermal Earth
  
  About Nesta
  Nesta is a research and innovation foundation that designs, tests and scales solutions for the biggest challenges of our time.

Driven by a vision to improve the lives of millions of people, our focus up to 2030 is on three missions: breaking the link between family background and life chances, halving obesity and cutting household carbon emissions.

We work with partners to develop high-potential solutions and test them as they evolve, drawing on expertise in qualitative and quantitative research, data science, behavioural science and design.

Once confident in the effectiveness of a solution, we take it to scale. We create national policy proposals, develop consumer-facing products and services, build and spin out commercial ventures and harness the power of the arts.

We work with two specialised units: BIT applies a deep understanding of human behaviour to help clients achieve their goals. Challenge Works designs and runs challenge prizes to spark innovation in science, technology and society. Find out more at nesta.org.uk