• New report from foundation that developed supermarket health targets policy later announced by Government finds similar targets for ‘out-of-home’ businesses would be feasible, commercially viable and impactful, potentially reducing obesity prevalence by around 2.5% - or 320,000 people living with obesity - over three years
• Analysis finds that diversity of sector and data collection are barriers to speedy setting of targets and mean that different kinds of targets will be needed
• Nesta recommends that Government mandate consistent data reporting among large takeaways and restaurant businesses as quickly as possible but not let challenges of setting targets for these businesses delay the process of setting targets for supermarkets

London, UK - Health targets for the largest UK takeaway and restaurant businesses should be feasible and commercially viable in the future, but health targets for supermarkets can be set sooner and therefore shouldn’t be delayed, the innovation foundation Nesta finds today.

Nesta first proposed mandatory health targets for the largest UK supermarkets last year, as part of the package of measures needed to halve obesity by 2030. The UK Government announced the ‘healthy food standard’ in June, requiring both mandatory reporting and healthy sales targets for all large food businesses.

A new Nesta report published today explores the possibility of introducing similar targets for the out-of-home (OOH) sector. ‘Out of home’ means retailers of any prepared food or drink purchased for immediate consumption, which includes takeaway, restaurant and cafe chains. According to market research firm IGD, the UK food-to-go market is anticipated to grow over the next few years and increase in value by almost 40% on 2019 levels by 2028.

The analysis finds that mandatory health targets for the largest out-of-home businesses would be a feasible, commercially viable and impactful regulatory measure to help reduce obesity in the UK, potentially reducing obesity prevalence by around 2.5% over three years, which translates to around 320,000 fewer people living with obesity in the UK. This would also generate around £1.5 billion in annual cost savings to society, through reduced obesity costs including to the NHS and improved productivity rates.

However, Nesta's analysis confirms that setting health targets for supermarkets will be more straightforward and impactful than introducing similar targets for the out-of-home sector.

The analysis of large (defined as having over 250 employees) out-of-home businesses in the UK, as the likely candidates for a future health target policy, finds:

• Data systems are not consistently in place to monitor or report the kinds of sales-weighted metrics that would be needed for an impactful target.
• The diversity of business models in the market means that while the kind of target that works for supermarkets - an absolute target, based on the best performer in the sector - won’t work for OOH, there are multiple other types of targets which could work for the sector.
• Access to and reporting of commercial data will therefore be needed to refine targets for OOH, meaning the government needs to expedite data reporting in the sector to facilitate policy development and target setting.
• The continued growth of the out-of-home sector and its influence on public health does mean decisive action is needed.

Because supermarket purchases account for the vast majority of people’s daily calorie intake - over 80% coming from large supermarkets compared to around 14% from the whole out-of-home sector - Nesta is urging the Government to prioritise setting health targets for supermarkets first, whilst mandating data reporting from large OOH businesses to inform effective target setting as a second stage. Nesta believes that deciding the necessary incentives to meet targets or penalties for not reaching them should also not be allowed to delay targets being put in place, so these can start improving people’s health.

Nesta also recommends that any health targets for large out-of-home businesses would likely need to be relative or use a group absolute target approach where more similar businesses are grouped. For example, it wouldn’t make sense for a coffee shop and a kebab shop to have the exact same target.

Hugo Harper, director of healthy life at Nesta, said: “Health targets for large food businesses, announced as part of the government’s healthy food standard, are a landmark commitment to tackle the obesity crisis. Making it easier for people to make healthier choices where they buy the vast majority of their food could make a big difference.

“Fast food is a significant contributor to the UK’s obesity rates and our analysis confirms that health targets can work for the takeaway and restaurant sector. But the UK’s large out-of-home businesses are not as close as its largest supermarket businesses are to having the sorts of data that would make setting this kind of target possible now. With obesity and excess weight costing the UK £126 billion a year, the government shouldn’t delay these measures and should aim to set mandatory targets for supermarkets as soon as possible. Requiring takeaway and restaurant businesses to provide the necessary data will make it possible to design and set robust, effective targets for this sector over the next few years.”

Separately to the analysis for this report, Nesta this week also published results from a three-month trial it conducted in partnership with Starbucks. The trial results demonstrated that subtle, customer-friendly changes are effective at reducing calories in people’s beverage orders and boosting orders of healthier options. Nesta’s other ongoing partnerships include one with Deliveroo and restaurant chain Maki & Ramen.

Notes to editors

1. Nesta has published its new report, Targeting the health of the nation: health targets for the out-of-home food sector, here.
2. For the report, Nesta consulted over 20 stakeholders, including representatives from eight leading UK OOH businesses, trade bodies, policymakers and other health NGOs. This involved semi-structured interviews, an industry focus group, and a policy improvement workshop, used to refine target design criteria and model parameters.
3. Nesta’s analysis was based on Worldpanel by Numerator’s Out of Home (OOH) service data for Great Britain, spanning April to December 2021, augmented with nutritional data. This dataset captured the nutritional profile of sales portfolios for approximately 90 of the ∼700 large OOH businesses.
4. Nesta designed an experimental analytical model to simulate the changes businesses could make to meet targets. The model simulated two main mechanisms: reformulation (reducing calorie content) and shifting sales towards healthier options. To ensure realism, the changes the model could make wer constrained to levels based on industry consultation. Consumer spend was kept constant to minimise cost impacts to businesses and consumers.
5. Although Nesta concluded that two metrics were deemed viable—Sales Weighted Average Energy per Product (SWA EPP) and Sales Weighted Average Nutrient Profiling Model (SWA NPM)—Nesta was unable to reliably model SWA NPM targets due to limited nutritional data availability. Therefore, quantitative conclusions were based on the SWA EPP metric.
6. Our analysis of available data suggests that both a relative target (based on each business' own baseline) or a group absolute target (eg, businesses would be separated into groups based on commonalities, such as types of food sold, and targets set based on the level of each group's best player) could both be feasible, commercially viable and similarly impactful.
7. For more information on the analysis or to speak to one of the experts involved, please contact Kieran Lowe, Media Manager, on 020 7438 2576 or [email protected]. Spokespeople are available for broadcast interviews.

About Nesta

Nesta is a research and innovation foundation that designs, tests and scales solutions for the biggest challenges of our time.

Driven by a vision to improve the lives of millions of people, our focus up to 2030 is on three missions: breaking the link between family background and life chances, halving obesity and cutting household carbon emissions.

We work with partners to develop high-potential solutions and test them as they evolve, drawing on expertise in qualitative and quantitative research, data science, behavioural science and design.

Once confident in the effectiveness of a solution, we take it to scale. We create national policy proposals, develop consumer-facing products and services, build and spin out commercial ventures and harness the power of the arts.

We work with two specialised units: BIT applies a deep understanding of human behaviour to help clients achieve their goals. Challenge Works designs and runs challenge prizes to spark innovation in science, technology and society. Find out more at nesta.org.uk