Today, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has published a report on Scotland’s progress against its emissions reduction targets, finding that current plans for heat pump rollout are slow, unambitious and rely on a risky ‘delay and catch up’ approach. In response, the research and innovation foundation Nesta has published new analysis on how the Scottish Government can meet its home heating targets.

The analysis finds that approximately 110,000 heat pumps and other low-carbon heating systems will need to be installed in Scotland over the course of the next Scottish Parliament (May 2026 to May 2031) to put the country on the best track to delivering on its legally binding climate obligations. This would triple the number of heat pumps in Scotland. The current draft Climate Change Plan’s path for low carbon heating implies as few as 30,000 installs in this timeframe.

Responding to the CCC’s report, Robin Parker, sustainable future mission manager at Nesta Scotland said:

“The Climate Change Committee’s report rightly highlights that decarbonising home heating will need to be top of the in-tray for the next Scottish Government.

“This should be a wake-up call that the Scottish Government’s current plans to reduce home heating emissions fall short. Nesta analysis shows that targeting 110,000 home heat pump installations across the next Scottish Parliament period would be in line with the pathway for home heating in Scotland that the CCC had previously set out. Targeting 110,000 heat pump installations over five years would support steady growth of the heat pump industry in Scotland without kicking the can down the road so that unrealistically rapid change is needed in the future. The final version of the Climate Change Plan should commit to this target and so should all political parties ahead of the May elections.

“Scotland has a golden opportunity to put its plentiful renewable energy from wind and water to use for heating homes, through heat pumps and other efficient low carbon technology. After the election, the new government should ensure that existing grant schemes for heat pump installations will continue and bring forward an ambitious Heat in Buildings Bill that accelerates heat pump installations. Hand-in-hand with this, the UK Government must look to take action to reduce the cost of electricity.”

Ends

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Notes to editors

1. Nesta’s analysis that 110,000 heat pumps should be targeted for installation in the course of the next Scottish Parliament (May 2026 to May 2031) is based on analysis of the Climate Change Committee’s balanced pathway for Scotland, published in the Scotland’s Carbon Budgets advice (published May 2025).
2. Nesta has also analysed the pathway for residential buildings in Scotland included in the Scottish Government’s Draft Climate Change Plan and found it implies the equivalent of just 30,000 heat pump installs might be targeted during the next Scottish Parliament period.
3. Just under 30,000 cumulative MCS (Microgeneration Certification Scheme) certified heat pump installations have been recorded in Scotland so far this Scottish Parliament term (between May 2021 and January 2026).
4. For more information on the analysis or to speak to one of the experts involved, please contact Kieran Lowe, Media Manager, on 020 7438 2576 or [email protected]. Spokespeople are available for broadcast interviews.

About Nesta

Nesta is a research and innovation foundation that designs, tests and scales solutions for the biggest challenges of our time.

Driven by a vision to improve the lives of millions of people, our focus up to 2030 is on three missions: breaking the link between family background and life chances, halving obesity and cutting household carbon emissions.

We work with partners to develop high-potential solutions and test them as they evolve, drawing on expertise in qualitative and quantitative research, data science, behavioural science and design.

Once confident in the effectiveness of a solution, we take it to scale. We create national policy proposals, develop consumer-facing products and services, build and spin out commercial ventures and harness the power of the arts.

We work with two specialised units: BIT applies a deep understanding of human behaviour to help clients achieve their goals. Challenge Works designs and runs challenge prizes to spark innovation in science, technology and society. Find out more at nesta.org.uk