Quantitative Analysis of Technology Futures Part 1

Nesta Working Paper 13/08
Issued: May 2013
Keywords: Foresight, Data, Futures, Prediction


As a gentle introduction to quantitative foresight techniques we begin by providing a working definition of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) and discussing its role, uses, and popularity over recent decades. We select 22 FTA techniques identified as the most important quantitative FTA techniques. We introduce these techniques, discuss their main contexts and uses and classify them into groups with common characteristics, positioning them along four key dimensions: descriptive / prescriptive; extrapolative / normative; data gathering / inference; and forecasting / foresight.


Tommaso Ciarli, Alex Coad and Ismael Rafols

The Nesta Working Paper Series is intended to make available early results of research undertaken or supported by Nesta and its partners in order to elicit comments and suggestions for revisions and to encourage discussion and further debate prior to publication (ISSN 2050-9820). The views expressed in this working paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of Nesta.