www.nesta.org.uk/press-release/big-loss-support-main-parties-and-big-benefits-green-and-brexit-parties/
A poll to test an alternative voting system found 60% of voters would rather spread their support among parties, rather than sticking to just one. Voters were given five votes each and, freed of the one-person-one-vote system, showed their true political colours are more of a rainbow than the current system suggests.
The experiment, part of global innovation foundation Nesta’s annual predictions for the coming year, gave each respondent to a YouGov poll a budget of five votes which they could choose to spend all on one party, a combination of two or more parties, or even leave some of their votes unspent.
Each of the main parties devoted some space in their manifesto to democratic renewal - ranging from significant voting reform to proposals on participation in voting.
The survey to test a ‘voter budget system’ was given to the same respondents as the latest Voting Intention YouGov/Sunday Times poll and the responses weighted in the same way. The results show a significant percentage drop in support for the two main parties and increased support for the Green Party and the Brexit Party. Using YouGov’s data, we ran the results through a swing calculator and found that if the percentages are represented as a uniform swing across the country, the results would be as follows:
This shows that given the option, voters would return a much more balanced parliament than is currently projected, with the two biggest parties and the SNP losing votes to smaller parties. The current first past the post system limits the overall effect on seats but the Liberal Democrats would be the major benefactors under this tested system.
In addition to spreading their votes across parties the research made clear that voters don’t fit into neat boxes with 11% of voters choosing to give at least one vote each to the Conversative and Labour parties, and 26% giving at least one vote to both Labour and the Liberal Democrats. 40% of voters overall stuck to just one party, with Conservative voters most likely to just vote for one party (38% of those who gave at least one vote to the Conservatives gave all their votes to them), and Plaid Cymru and Scottish National Party voters most likely to vote for at least two parties (3% of those who gave at least one vote to either party chose to give all their votes to that party).
The poll coincides with Nesta’s predictions for 2020, which will be announced in full as voters go to the polls on Thursday 12 December. One of the predictions for next year is that new alternative voting models, will start to emerge and grow in popularity in response to democratic alienation.
In its prediction Nesta outlines a system of voter budgets where by the first vote for a party is ‘cheaper’ than future votes for the same party, for example, if the first vote costs one voting point, a second for the same party could cost two points. This limits the power of the truly tribal to skew things by casting five votes for the same party. In the past Nesta’s year-end predictions have correctly predicted the rise of crowdfunding, meat-free meat and deep-fakes.
Jonathan Bone, Senior Researcher and ‘voter budget’ predictor at Nesta said:
“This experiment suggested voters aren’t as tribal as many politicians would want them to be. Given the chance, most people would spread themselves across the political spectrum rather than put their full political weight behind one party.
“The spread of democracy around the world is one of the major achievements of modern times but current voting systems are leading people to feel disempowered and underrepresented. This general election campaign has been marked by a distinct lack of voter enthusiasm with the leaders of each of the main parties being deeply unpopular. No matter the result on Thursday, these results suggest that we should have a conversation about whether our current democratic system is fit for purpose.”
Ends
Press contact - Will Hoyles, 07812 362714, [email protected]
All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc. Total sample size was 1,680 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 5th - 6th December 2019. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+).
Full data tables are available on request.
* According to the latest YouGov/Sunday Times poll - https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/itsi0h01ub/TheSundayTimes_VI_Results_191206_w.pdf
Seat projections here - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-poll-10-points-ahead-boris-johnson-aims-for-victory-with-immigration-pledge-qh9lx9ktp
^Calculations made using - http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer
About Nesta
Nesta is an innovation foundation. For us, innovation means turning bold ideas into reality and changing lives for the better. We use our expertise, skills and funding in areas where there are big challenges facing society. We've spent over 20 years working out the best ways to make change happen through research and experimenting, and we've applied that to our work in innovation policy, health, education, government innovation and the creative economy and arts. Nesta is based in the UK and supported by a financial endowment. We work with partners around the globe to bring bold ideas to life to change the world for good.
