We know that to achieve a 28 per cent cut in household emissions over the next decade, we need to save some 19 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO2e) per year by 2030, compared with 2019. Among other measures, this will require at least five million households to switch to low-carbon heating solutions, and over 10 million to install cavity wall, solid wall or floor insulation.

Over the past decade, UK greenhouse gas emissions have fallen substantially as the UK has invested heavily in producing low-carbon electricity. In the next two decades, however, decarbonisation will mean more substantial changes for consumers. They will need to insulate their homes, move to electric cars, replace their gas boilers and help the grid by shifting electricity usage away from peak production times.

In the face of such an enormous challenge and increasing urgency, how can we better understand what will motivate people to make the big changes that are necessary, while simultaneously removing some of the barriers that stand in their way?

We conducted a survey of 5,000 people to examine attitudes towards home energy and efficiency and green heating, as well as possible incentives that could be tested and implemented to achieve a zero carbon Britain.

We identified a considerable ‘value-action gap’: 85 per cent agree that climate change is one of the most important issues that needs addressing and 84 per cent agree that everyone will have to adopt energy efficient and green heating measures sooner or later, yet only 35 per cent have made or are planning to make energy efficiency measures soon. Clearly there’s a long way to go between fostering good intentions and making the leap into action.

We will also need to get over gas. UK consumers still predominantly use gas to heat their homes. Many say gas is reliable (50 per cent), convenient (54 per cent) and easy to use (56 per cent), so finding ways to entice people away from gas, whether that’s making alternatives cheaper, safer or easier to use, could have a huge role to play.

While it’s true that the cost of decarbonising home heating is a considerable factor (cited by 52 per cent of consumers), the barriers to change are more than financial: many strongly agree (32 per cent) that there is not enough clear evidence about which energy efficiency measures are right for them; it’s difficult to find the right tradespeople to complete the installation (32 per cent); and they don’t know where to start looking into energy efficiency measures (31 per cent).

If research consistently shows that consumers are concerned about climate change, and we have a better idea of what’s standing in the way of people making the shift to greener home heating, we need now to turn our attention to how we can close the value-action gap and transform interest and goodwill into action. How can we make it as easy as possible for consumers to find the information and support they need, along with reliable suppliers and installers? And at the scale and pace of change required to get to net zero, how could we trigger a consumer-led transition to low-carbon heating?

To help us think about how we might create the conditions needed for a revolution in home heating, we needed to know more about where and how this kind of change has already taken place. We enlisted the help of the Rapid Transition Alliance to research examples of sizeable shifts that could inspire the sort of step-change we need to make greener home heating a reality, and fast.

Based on evidence rather than just good ideas, the stories show what kind of changes are possible, how people can help to shape them, and what conditions can make them happen. There’s a lot to learn from how the Netherlands managed to move away from fossil fuels and rebuild its infrastructure to be more energy diverse, and from Finland’s rapid transition from burning wood and oil to carbon-neutral heat pumps for homes.

We can also find examples closer to home, such as the introduction of proper sewerage and indoor bathrooms. By the end of World War One few British homes had indoor toilets or baths. Even as recently as 1967, a quarter of our housing stock still lacked one, other or both. Now they are universal. And look at lightbulbs: in under 20 years, most of the world has pivoted away from incandescent and halogen bulbs, which wasted as much of 95 per cent of their output creating heat rather than light, to low-carbon, sustainable LED. The UK didn’t even formally begin this phaseout until 2009 and just over a decade later it’s all but complete.

What’s clear is that in the UK we need to mobilise a critical mass of public desire to embrace a bold and ambitious path to change. These examples show us that it’s not just necessary but possible: when technological innovation is matched with strong public demand and bold political will, transformative change can happen quickly and at scale. There’s also no single solution, it will require multiple initiatives and a sustained commitment that engages millions of people, and at Nesta we’re ready to play our part.

We intend to explore many avenues to support this transition. We’re starting by looking at how to more effectively find, engage and convert ‘early adopters’ of low-carbon heating. Building on our survey research, we’d like to better understand the motivations and interests of groups of people who are at different stages of the ‘adoption journey’, and particularly those who say they’re planning to make changes soon. We think there’s potential in using data science to identify households with a higher likelihood of adopting low-carbon heating, using design methods to create a much more pleasant and lower-hassle customer experience for people who want to instal heat pumps, and using arts to help people imagine how their homes might change for the better. We’re interested in testing ways to mobilise ‘social referents’ (people who are trusted and influential), such as heating engineers, friends and neighbours, to find out more about who may be the most credible group to influence levels of take-up.

Consumer engagement is of course just part of the picture. Reducing emissions from homes needs action right across the energy system, for example to create more policy and regulatory incentives for electrification, grow the supply chain of skilled installers, reduce the cost of low-carbon heating systems and support people people living in fuel poverty or who are otherwise unable to afford upgrades to ensure that this transition doesn’t widen existing inequalities. As we get our mission off the ground, we’re scoping projects in all of these areas.

If this sounds relevant to your work, please get in touch at [email protected].