A specialist panel investigated the challenges and opportunities of prediction, and imagined the consequences of a forecast-rich future on our economy and individual lives.

Rapidly expanding data resources offer increasing opportunities to discern patterns beyond human intuition which may help guide policy, investment, and everyday decisions.

How powerful and reliable are these predictive models? As algorithmic modelling moves into the mainstream, how will they affect our behaviour?

How should increasingly sophisticated predictions and data be used and communicated? Your risk of re-entering hospital, and of reoffending may already have been modelled and the result used to make policy decisions. How will this trend evolve?

As the public and markets become more aware of the power of prediction and data, will we end up creating feedback loops and confirming our pre-existing expectations?

Even with the best intentions, understanding statistics and risk is not easy or intuitive. How can we educate ourselves and report risk well?

The lively discussion, exploring these questions and more, kicked off a season of events on the future of technology in the run up to Nesta's FutureFest weekender on 28-29 September.

Speakers

Nate Silver

Author of The Signal and the Noise

Mark Buchanan

Physicist and author of Forecast: What Physics, Meteorology, and the Natural Sciences Can Teach Us About Economics

Gregory Mead

CEO and co-founder of Musicmetric